Moderna’s (NASDAQ: MRNA) Covid-19 vaccine received emergency approval from the U.S. FDA last week, with vaccinations likely to begin as soon as Monday. Initial shipments are likely to stand at about 6 million doses, with total shipments by the end of the month likely to rise to about 20 million. This is larger than the Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) vaccine, which has delivered 2.9 million doses to date and has more stringent shipping and storage requirements. While the financial impact of the vaccine is likely to be limited for Moderna this quarter – with consensus pointing to about $250 million in Revenue, the number should scale up considerably to over $1.3 billion in Q1 2021, with Moderna likely to post a quarterly profit.
What are the risks at this juncture? While the vaccine has been deemed safe and effective by regulators, there is a possibility that we could see new side effects such as allergies following the launch of mass inoculation programs that involve millions of people, compared to the late-stage study which had just about 30k people. There could also be logistics and manufacturing-related hiccups, given that this is Moderna’s first commercial drug. Moreover, much of the optimism surrounding the vaccine appears to be priced in and investors have been booking profits on Moderna stock, with the stock declining by about 14% over the past week.
See our interactive dashboard on How Will The Covid-19 Vaccine Impact Moderna’s EPS? for more details on how the vaccine is likely to impact Moderna’s bottom line. You can modify key variables including price per shot, the number of doses, and margins to arrive at your own estimates.